From logistics, energy and travel to IT and facilities, CASME analyses how the 2026 Iran crisis is reshaping indirect procurement risk across every sector.

The Iran conflict is already moving freight rates, disrupting air travel, pushing up energy prices and raising cyber risk. For indirect category managers, the question is not whether this will affect your categories, it already is. The key question to consider is whether your commercial strategies were built for this environment, or built for a world that no longer exists.
 

What's happening, in plain terms  (correct at the time of publication) 

• Beginning on 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, targeting military and nuclear sites and killing Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
• Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on US and Israeli targets across the region and has threatened to attack any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,  the narrow waterway carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil and gas.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful military and political force that controls Iran's ballistic missile programme, its navy and its strategic assets, has declared the Strait closed.
• Ship-tracking data shows vessel traffic through Hormuz has dropped sharply, with approximately 150 tankers now anchored and waiting. Major container lines, including MSC, Maersk and CMA CGM, have suspended Gulf transits and are rerouting cargo via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and significant cost to Asia-origin shipments.
• Dubai International Airport and other Gulf hubs have faced missile attacks and closures, with thousands of flights cancelled or rerouted, according to Reuters.
• Oil prices are up over 9% and European gas prices have surged 28% since the strikes began, according to Smart Energy UK.

How long could this last?

No one can give a precise end date, and credible analysts are divided.

• President Trump has suggested the conflict could last "around four weeks", though the US military has cautioned that operations will continue beyond a single strike, according to CNN.
• Oxford Economics describes the conflict as still escalating, with significant uncertainty around how far it spreads and how disruptive it becomes for oil markets and the wider economy.
• The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), which tracks political violence globally, notes that a diplomatic path exists but depends heavily on whether the US narrows its demands to Iran's nuclear programme,  which is not yet clear.

For practical planning purposes, category managers should work on the assumption that disruption to shipping, air travel and energy prices runs for at least one to three months, with a real risk of persisting longer.

What this means for indirect spend by category

Freight and logistics

• Container lines have introduced emergency war-risk surcharges. CMA CGM at $2,000 per TEU, and Hapag-Lloyd at $1,500 per TEU standard. These will feed into total cost even for buyers who purchase on a free-delivered basis, according to Supply Chain Dive.
• Ocean Network Express has confirmed that around 10% of the world's container fleet is affected.
• As sea shippers shift volumes to air freight to compensate for longer sea routes, air cargo capacity is tightening globally, pushing up air freight rates even for buyers with no direct Middle East exposure.
• Freight forwarder DSV recommends sharing updated demand forecasts with carriers earlier than usual, booking space sooner and adjusting safety stock levels.

Energy and utilities

• The disruption affects not only direct energy costs but also facilities management, data centres, cloud services and any outsourced service with an energy index or fuel surcharge built into the contract.
• Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank, warns that European energy markets are structurally more exposed than North America to Gulf disruptions.
• If your energy contracts renew in the next one to three months, pricing is being revised upward now. The window to lock rates is closing fast.

Business travel and events

• Reuters reports thousands of flights cancelled, with Qatar Airways and Etihad grounded until at least early March. Aviation experts quoted by The Guardian newspaper in the UK, warn the disruption will “remain messy for the next month" as airlines rebuild stranded crew and aircraft networks.
• Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, the three largest transit hubs between Europe and Asia, are compromised simultaneously, with no quick fix.
• Senior executive travel to and through the Gulf now carries active duty-of-care obligations that HR and procurement must address jointly.

Facilities, MRO and project work

• Extended sea routes and higher freight costs will affect maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) goods, fit-out materials and specialist contractors, particularly where inputs originate in Asia. (Getsupplybrief.com)
• Project timelines may stretch and some suppliers may look to reprice or de-scope, especially in construction and FM categories.

IT, cloud and cyber services

• IDC has issued a first-look warning on the Iran conflict's impact on global IT spending and infrastructure risk in 2026.
• Nozomi Networks Labs, a cyber secrity research lab,  reported a 133% increase in cyberattacks linked to Iranian threat groups between early and mid-2025, with US transportation and manufacturing organisations the primary targets; US cyber authorities have warned these actors may use cyberspace to retaliate further.
• Demand for managed security services, monitoring and incident response is likely to rise, and with it, pricing pressure in those categories.

Legal, compliance and professional services

• International law firm Reed Smith warns that sanctions lists are evolving rapidly; counterparties compliant today may be restricted tomorrow, exposing organisations to disputes where Force Majeure and sanctions clauses are insufficiently drafted.
• Business continuity analysts at Wasel & Wasel, an international disputes & geopolicy firm, expect more suppliers to invoke Force Majeure as sanctions and physical disruption make performance impossible.
• Beyond freight and energy, the conflict is also affecting global food and ingredient supply chains. The Strait of Hormuz carries over 30% of globally traded urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser,  and prices jumped 14% in a single day following the closure, according to Bloomberg. For indirect buyers in catering, foodservice and facilities, this is worth monitoring.

Three questions to ask your key suppliers this week

These are not simple yes/no questions. They are designed to open a genuine conversation about your suppliers' exposure and what they are doing about it. Fpr example:

1. "Talk us through your current routing for inbound materials and outbound deliveries. What proportion touches the Middle East, and what alternatives are you actively using?"
2. "How are rising energy and fuel costs showing up in your cost base right now? How are you protecting yourselves?"
3. "Who is leading your internal crisis and continuity planning for this conflict, and how can we connect with them directly for regular updates?"
    

Who to bring into the room internally

This is not a situation Procurement can manage alone. The functions you need around the table immediately are Finance and FP&A, Legal and Compliance, Operations and Supply Chain, IT and Cyber Security, HR and Travel.  Engaging with Sustainability and ESG is also recommended, particularly given that rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope carries a significant carbon footprint uplift that needs to be documented now.
 

A note for colleagues in Europe and Asia-Pacific

• Bruegel advises European energy buyers to treat this as a structural, not temporary vulnerability, and to accelerate rather than pause the energy transition.
• UK buyers should note that electricity pricing is gas-indexed, meaning even domestically generated power is effectively priced off international gas markets.
• Asia-Pacific teams face the sharpest logistics disruption, as the loss of Gulf hub airports severs the fastest Europe–Asia air corridor simultaneously, with container rerouting adding the most transit time to Asia-origin freight.
• Reed Smith notes that EU and UK organisations are exposed to US secondary sanctions where contracts are in US dollars or rely on US financial channels.

There is more. The detail matters

This article covers the main headlines as they are unfolding. The full CASME Member Briefing goes significantly further, including:

• A RAG impact matrix mapping every indirect category against four industry sectors so you can immediately identify where your highest-risk exposures sit
• A further set of diagnostic supplier questions, structured by exposure, upstream risk, commercial terms and governance
• A self-assessment question set to audit your own category strategies against the three volatility forces: geopolitical, economic and AI-driven
• Further guidance on your internal control tower — who owns what, what decisions need escalating, and how to align Finance, Legal, Operations and ESG around a single risk picture
• Sector-specific analysis for manufacturing, retail, financial services and technology,  with practical implications for indirect category managers in each

Interested in the full briefing? This is available exclusively to CASME members. Send a message via our Contact Us form to request access to the complete article.